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Cake day: June 28th, 2023

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  • MrZee@lemm.eetopolitics @lemmy.worldThe Debt Is About to Matter Again
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    3 months ago

    This article is mostly talking about an economics concept of “r vs g”, which the author describes as follows:

    As long as a country’s economic growth rate (g) is higher than the interest rate ® it pays on its national debt, then the cost of servicing that debt will remain stable, allowing the government to roll it over indefinitely without much worry.

    I’m not an economist, but this seemed odd to me. I suspected the author might not understand economics and the concept might more complicated than they were making it out to be.

    A quick search on “r vs g economics” seems to indicate that this author has no business writing about economics. Here is the first result I clicked on, which near the start of the article states:

    One approach to assess the sustainability of federal debt was popularized by Olivier Blanchard, in his speech as outgoing American Economic Association president, in 2019. That paper was written during a period of low interest rates and noted the relationship between the interest rate on government debt ® and the growth rate of the economy (G): R less than G could imply a stable debt trajectory. However, Blanchard, as well as other economists and fiscal policy experts, recognized that the framework only holds true when the deficit excluding interest payments is small, which unfortunately is not the current case in the United States.

    That makes a lot more sense to me. The economics concept applies when the deficit is small. The US deficit is not small. Regardless of R vs G, a large deficit means that debt is becoming more of a burden, even if R is less than G. Yes, R getting closer to G or exceeding G increases the burden of US debt, but R vs G isn’t all that matters like the writer of this piece in the Atlantic claims.

    …At least as far as I can tell… But it’s late, I’m tired, and I’m not an economist. I’d love to hear what one has to say about this article, even if they tell me I’m totally wrong.





  • When police think they have right suspect they often do everything they can to prove that person did it. Essentially, once they have their targets set on a suspect, they shift from trying to figure out who may have done it to putting all their resources into finding evidence against the suspect and building the strongest case they can against them. This includes ignoring evidence that is counter to their theory and discontinuing investigation of other leads.

    Their goal at that point is to convict. Because, to them, getting a conviction is success and the person going free is failure. Alternately, getting the person to “commit suicide” is success because they can claim that they were guilty and no trial is necessary.

    It’s all about winning and getting a conviction because conviction=justice=case closed. And that means the public can rest soundly knowing “justice” has been served. Especially after PR has done their work.

    Prosecutors are the same. They treat their job as finding anything and everything to get the conviction. Exculpatory evidence is ignored and buried. If “evidence” is planted/manufactured, they do their best to ignore and hide that fact and make said evidence look real. It’s the defense’s job to prove innocence. In theory, the police should be working to find and provide evidence for both sides, but the police and Prosecutors anre working toward the same goal, leaving the defense severely hindered.

    This is the system that railroads people into conviction. They use the media to amplify their story and make it look like they are infallible. When information comes out that counters the police/prosecutor story, they circle the wagons to protect each other and discredit the information that contradicts them. Because they think that they are the good guys and even if they got something wrong, their original hunch must have been right.


  • Just to make sure I have the situation correct:

    You filled a tub that you don’t normally use with water (for an emergency supply). A day or so later, the ceiling and wall directly below the tub are soaked. You then drained the water. 20 minutes later you still hear dripping so wonder if it was the water in the tub or something else.

    It’s possible the supply line to the tub faucet cracked or otherwise started leaking when you filled the tub, but it seems much more likely that the water in the tub was the source.

    The drain was plugged when the leak occurred, so the drain lines themselves are unlikely to be the issue.

    This is a fiberglass/plastic tub, right? I think the tub itself is slowly leaking either from a hairline crack or from around the outside edge of the drain. This leak slowly soaked and pooled on the floor beneath the tub. Now you are hearing that pooled water drip down.

    I’d do a careful crawl of the tub and see if you can find anything that appears to be a crack.

    I’d keep listening to the drip rate in the wall and see if it’s subsiding. Hopefully it is. At that point, it’s figuring out what, if anything you can do for mitigation. My first thought is heat and airflow in the room with soaked walls/ceilings.



  • Hello, 30-years-ago me. My sister and I had a similar age gap. We had an amazing relationship/friendship throughout our childhood and it was really hard when she left for college. The good news is that we still have an amazing relationship and she is still the best sister I could ever ask for.

    It’s a funny thing that when we are young, everything feels so permanent when in reality, your life is changing incredibly quickly. When you get hit by something like this, it’s uncomfortable as fuck to see that reality. Change is hard, but it also leads to and comes along with growth… and growth is good.

    I don’t say this to be dismissive of what you are going through, only to say that change happens. It is a part of life that we learn to deal with because it can’t be avoided. What is happening in your life probably hurts. It’s probably scary. The uncertainty sucks. All those feelings are valid.

    She will be farther away. You will see her less. She is going to be incredibly busy at times. But she is also there for you and you two will still have each other and have time together.

    Of course, I have no guarantees — your life isn’t mine. But for me, it wasn’t nearly as bad as it seemed (it’s easy to imagine the worst). Just like it was awesome having an older sister as your friend while at home, it’s really awesome to have an older sister in college to talk to and visit get to experience bits of that life with.




  • From the article:

    There are some important things to keep in mind here, like the fact that 15 of the 17 studies were case-control studies. This kind of research cannot prove cause and effect, and it often does not look at things that might have affected both the exposure and the outcome.

    A number of the studies that were looked at were of low quality, which is something that the authors also highlight.

    Findings were inconsistent across studies, but those of higher quality suggested that associations in unadjusted models might have been due to factors that could have influenced the results.



  • I did the math for the interest rate since they didn’t bother to in the article. The article says she had paid $1400/mo for 3 years and had only paid 10,000 toward principal. Assuming that’s 36 months of payments, the interest rate would be around 15.5%. The payment term would have been 10 years and total payments would end up being $168k.

    Predatory lenders and financial illiteracy; a perfect match made in hell.



  • Yeah, it’s kind of a fun one to play around with when it’s broken. For a slightly different workaround, you can also hold down momentarily on the playback slider, then drag. It’s the quick touch and drag (from the left) that seems to trigger it.

    A feature request: add a setting to disable swipe from edge to go to the previous screen. For me, it’s a feature that I only use accidentally when trying to do a different swipe gesture.

    Love the app. Thanks for all your hard work!





  • I suspect that there is “palm check” turned on for your touchpad. This is designed to keep you from accidentally moving/clicking the touchpad by brushing it with your palm while you are typing.

    Look for a “palm check”, “palm rejection”, or “disable touchpad when typing” setting in your touchpad utility. As far as I know, these are all roughly the same thing.