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Cake day: 2025年6月24日

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  • Also, its been observed that pieces colliding together can be thrown into a higher orbit. Or more accurately, a more elliptic orbit with a much higher apogee than it had before. That means a Kessler Syndrome event in a lower orbit could start a chain reaction in higher orbits.

    https://orbitaldebris.jsc.nasa.gov/quarterly-news/pdfs/ODQNv7i3.pdf

    Also immediately obvious was the high susceptibility of the fragment to solar radiation pressure, demonstrated by rapid and dramatic changes in its orbit. From an initial orbit of about 1365 km by 1445 km with an inclination of 74 degrees, the fragment’s perigee began to decrease while its apogee increased. Within four weeks the orbit had been perturbed into one of 750 km by 1895 km. At this point, atmospheric drag became the dominant factor, causing the object to reenter the atmosphere a little more than two weeks later on 3 June (see figure). Thus, the fragment existed for only 43 days, despite originating in an orbit from which decay normally requires thousands of years.

    Good news is that they won’t last very long in orbit doing since the perigee is lowered. However, having so many fragments all at once would probably be very bad.


  • There are several effects of Kessler Syndrome. The one people focus on is the worst one where there’s so much junk that we can’t safely get anything past that orbit for decades or even centuries. That won’t happen in LEO, because, as you say, stuff will come down with the bit of atmospheric drag at that height.

    Which doesn’t solve the other issue, which is destroying everything in LEO right now. Astronauts would likely die.

    The charger location is what’s forcing Model S owners to back into supercharger parking spaces. Everyone else was inconvenienced for Elon’s benefit.


  • In almost all cases of Elon having one of his companies do something good, he was more of a hindrance than a help.

    “Starship doesn’t need a deluge system”

    “Put the charge port on the left hand rear, because that works better for the garage of the place I’m renting in Bel Air” (Yes, really)

    SpaceX is his most successful company, and it’s also the one that’s best at keeping Elon away from anything that matters.

    LEO Internet satellites aren’t a good idea. They’re threatening Kessler Syndrome and fucking up radio telescopes. It’s also convincing other spacefaring nations that they also need LEO Internet satellites, and that’s only going to make those problems worse. Just lay fiber.

    Then there’s the Boring Company. “Digging is easy, you just need to ignore environmental regulations and everything will get done quickly and within budget”, Elon thinks. Well, he did ignore environmental regulations, but it didn’t get done quickly or within budget. The Las Vegas Loop is a low throughput novelty (so perfect for Vegas, I guess). Any moron can increase the capacity of the system by orders of magnitude just by putting some rails in those tunnels.



  • Yes. The way this always works is through useful idiots. There’s a core group that knows it’s bullshit, but they want to use it to pursue some other agenda. They then filter talking points to their media contacts. Those people may or may not believe it, but their paycheck depends on convincing masses of people that it’s true.

    The random MAGA guy on a Facebook post? He probably believes it. He’s two degrees removed from the people who don’t. The Enlightened Centrist who tries to mix both sides into a resemblance of an ideology is three degrees removed.

    This is also why the only “journalism” outlets that aren’t financially struggling are conservative podcasters and YouTubers.





  • It’s important to note how the Black Panthers used “violence”. There were very few incidents where they actually fired their guns, and when they did, they were arguably baited into doing it by the FBI and local cops.

    Their best tactic was just hanging around with an AK on their back while a cop did their racial profiling thing to somebody else. They’d keep a book of laws handy and give the person advice from the sidelines. If they didn’t have a gun, the cop would likely have found some pretext to arrest them and that’d be it. With a gun, the cop thinks twice and puts up with it. It wasn’t there to actually be fired, but to make sure everyone behaved themselves.

    This was so effective they changed California’s open carry law to stop it. It’s estimated that there were only around 100 Black Panthers at the time.



  • Troops are being moved into cities and they will keep being sent to more cities.

    Which is important. Make them want to cover every city in America. The problem for them is that they can’t. There aren’t enough regular troops, National Guard, and ICE agents put together to make it work. They’ll be spread too thin.

    That really highlights the importance of protests. If it was just New York it would fail. If it was just Chicago it would fail. If it were just LA it would fail. If we signal that we’re all going to work together on this, they can’t possibly do it.




  • Part of what saved AMD was spinning off their fabs into a separate company. Besides the cash flow, they could focus on design and weren’t hitched to what their own fabs could produce. They could choose the best fab contract they could afford.

    Pat Gelsinger floated the idea of spinning off the fabs, but the US government shut it down as part of the deal for building new fabs with government money. The fabs that Intel may not even finish now.

    Another factor for AMD was having their SoC in consoles. Kept some cash flow going when they desperately needed it. Intel doesn’t have that benefit, either. AMD owns the PS5 and Xbox, while Nvidia has Nintendo. Steam Deck-like handhelds are a small but growing market, and all the ones people want to buy run AMD.

    So the question comes up of what Intel can even do for cash flow. Their GPU division might start showing real profit in another generation, but they have to survive that long while taking a loss. One more uncompetitive generation of CPU releases will probably doom their core product, and the best they can hope for there is “not completely suck”. The datacenter market was holding on because Intel has traditionally been rock solid stable, but that argument was killed with the 13th/14th gen overheating issues (which did affect equivalent server processors, as well). Their other hardware, like networking chipsets, comes with the same dark cloud looming over it, and it isn’t enough to keep the company running, anyway.





  • So the problem with this line of thinking is seeing it as binary. What actually happens in cases of cults is that some split off, and the remainder are more fanatic than ever. For examples, see the Great Disappointment of the Adventists, or 1975 predictions with Jehovah’s Witnesses.

    The trouble that MAGA has is that it doesn’t take many to split off before they’re no longer a meaningful political force. Over the last six months, both Democrats and Republicans have been getting phone calls of death threats if they don’t do everything Trump wants. Members of congress have made certain decisions because of this. That is going away.