Beaver [he/him]

Master of Reality

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  • 173 Comments
Joined 5 years ago
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Cake day: July 29th, 2020

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  • Feels like AI is the only growth sector and maybe not the best ground to build a sound economic foundation on.

    WSJ with an interesting piece this morning about how we are basically pouring our entire productive capacity into building data centers

    In the handful of interviews I’ve had these past months, the hiring managers have very excitedly talked about how their products get used by AI data centers (even if tangentially). In one of them, I pointedly asked what their plan was if the bottom fell out of the AI market, and I got a very hem-haw answer.

    It’s frightening how much the commanders of capital are betting the farm on AI being as transformational as the hype artists are claiming it’s going to be. This is getting way beyond the territory of even the late 90s tech boom.


  • I haven’t heard a good explanation. People keep saying that all the ghost listings are “data gathering”, but I’m not sure what kind of a data would be gathered or why it would be valuable. I also can’t quite figure out what the point is of spamming job listings with applications that are fake or very obviously not suited for that job. It’s not like they’re going to get hired, so there’s no payday for the recruiter even with high volumes. It seems like job seeking and hiring for are just fundamentally broken right now.



  • I was laid off in 2008, 2020, and now again in mid 2025 (I work in industrial equipment manufacturing). Anecdotally, the job search process is feeling somewhat worse than 2008. Part of that seems to just be the absolute degenate state of job boards, but I think it’s mostly just the collapsing availability of real job openings.

    I was employed for the first half of 2025, and so I got to be privvy to my company’s Q1 and preliminary Q2 results. They were… really bad, like sales dropped almost in half from an already kind of weak 2024. But I think the kicker was that a lot of people ended up getting pulled into tariff-mitigation work because of parts availability issues, so it’s not like we were even working on cost-reduction projects or anything.

    I think we’re seeing a relatively slow crash because the 2020 COVID shocks were not that long ago, and so everyone got some practice with handling sudden unexpected supply chain shocks. But as I’ve said before, a lot of companies simply don’t have a plan for what to do if Trump doesn’t TACO on tariffs.