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Cake day: October 6th, 2023

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  • War is about breaking the enemy’s ability to fight.

    Which for Ukraine is not strongly diminished. They produce MORE equipment than they did before that war started.

    Imperial Japan lost almost no territory before losing.

    What are you talking about? At the height of it’s expansion it controlled Korea, Indonesia, the Philippines, a good quarter of China, all of southeast Asia and numerous islands in the Pacific. They lost all of those before capitulating.

    A better example would be WW1 Germany, who barely lost any ground before their surrender due to complete exhaustion of war fighting ability, after a famously long and fruitless positional war… Kinda like we see in Ukraine.

    But a more realistic solution would be to recognise that as a small bit of humor meant to illustrate how little progress Russia is making, not as a serious prediction.


  • On February 23rd 2022, I said Putin would never attack, he’d be an absolute fool because he could never hold a country like Ukraine.

    On February 25th 2022, I said “I give Ukraine 2 weeks, and then three decades of bloody occupation”

    Today, I’ve learned to shut the fuck up about shit I don’t understand. You should try the same.

    Some things I do understand: Russia illegally occupied about 7% of Ukrainian territory before 2021. By March 2022 they held 26%. By november 2022, Russia illegally occupied 17.6% of Ukraine. Today, 1015 days later, Russia holds 19.3% of Ukraine.

    Those are territorial gains of 0.6% per year, a speed that makes Douglas Haig look like a racecar driver. At this rate, Russia will hold all of Ukraine just in time Putin’s 208th birthday.

    Another thing I do understand: Ukraine can’t win this war on the battlefield, but neither can Russia. Russia spent the final inheritance of the Soviet Union on this war. The massive reserves of materiel that Stalin, Chroesjtsjov, Brezjnev left for the Union (mostly made in Ukraine) have now been spent. The population that grew under the Soviet Union is also spent, the population pyramid is shattered.

    At the same time, Ukraine has had its population genocided, it’s children kidnapped and raised by Russian thieves to destroy their culture, and its men shot in an unjust to appease the ego of a leader who wishes he was half the despot Khrushchev was.

    Both nations have already lost. Ukraine has lost everything they built since the Soviet Union fell, Russia lost everything they had left since the same time.

    The only difference is how much more will be lost before Putin finally dies and the mad scramble for power will give Ukraine a break.

    EDIT: I gave you a clear answer before your edit, you coward.